Think tank cuts Taiwan’s 2017 GDP growth forecast to 1.73%

Taipei-based Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, ???) has lowered its forecast for Taiwan's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2017 to 1.73 percent from its previous estimate of 1.81 percent in October.

The first quarter of 2017 is forecast to see the strongest growth at 2.4 percent of the year, while the second, third and fourth quarters will see 1.83 percent, 1.4 percent, and 1.34 percent growth respectively, according to the CIER, one of Taiwan's leading think tanks.

The lower forecast for GDP growth in 2017 reflected the relatively higher comparison base seen in 2016 after the institution upgraded its estimate for this year to 1.29 percent from its previous estimate of 1.03 percent, CIER President Wu Chung-shu (???) said at a seminar to release its forecast on Tuesday.

The revision was also made after taking into consideration uncertainties in government policies next year, Wu added.

These include future policy direction following the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president and the economic and financial policies of third countries.

Other factors weighed include movements in global oil and commodity prices, slowing economic growth and rising credit risk in China and geopolitical or political uncertainty, Wu said, adding that a growth rate under 2 percent indicated slow economic recovery in Taiwan which means many people might not feel the improvement.

Meanwhile, CIER researcher Peng Su-ling (???) said that the 2017 GDP growth forecast was made on the back of domestic demand which is expected to contribute 1.42 percentage points to GDP growth, while exports could contribute 0.31 percentage points.

Source: Focus Taiwan News Channel