Domestic Needs to Drive Next Trump-Xi Meeting: Scholar

Taipei: Domestic political considerations in both the United States and China are likely to drive the agenda of the next meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, a Taiwanese scholar said Friday. Wang Hsin-hsien, director of National Chengchi University's Institute of International Relations, made the assessment during a Q and A session at a book launch in Taipei. According to Focus Taiwan, Wang stated that both Washington and Beijing sought "strategic stability" during Trump and Xi's first meeting in Beijing in May, but the outcome was closer to "tactical stability." He likened the situation to "two boxers agreeing to take a break," suggesting that the pause does not end the fight but rather prepares for the next round. The anticipated second meeting, expected to take place on Sept. 24 in Washington, should therefore be viewed not only through the lens of bilateral relations but also in terms of the two leaders' respective domestic needs. Ahead of the U.S. midterm electi ons on Nov. 3, Trump will likely seek commitments from China to purchase more U.S. products, including Boeing aircraft, soybeans, and beef. Meanwhile, Xi needs to demonstrate that he can manage relations with Washington as China prepares for major Communist Party meetings. Wang noted that Taiwan is likely to receive less attention compared to the first Trump-Xi meeting, when Beijing prioritized the threat of "Taiwan independence." This shift is partly because the U.S. will have more influence over the agenda this time, given that the meeting is being held in Washington. A wider range of issues are expected to be addressed at the upcoming summit, including trade, tariffs, technology, supply chains, and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Among China watchers in the United States, there are few expectations of breakthroughs. Craig Singleton, senior director for China at the nonpartisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies, was quoted by CNBC as saying that "the relationship increasingly produces transac tions without trust and stability without settlement," characterizing the summit as a low-expectations meeting focused on managing stalemates rather than resolving them. Possible fault lines over trade and Iran may need to be managed, as recent developments have shown. At the G20 finance ministers' summit that concluded on Sept. 1, China faced pressure to reduce its massive trade surplus, with Beijing being the only country objecting to a provision urging countries with excessive surpluses to stop distorting trade. Regarding Iran, the U.S. has announced plans to sanction Iran's business partners to increase pressure on the Islamic Republic, a move that could put China, Iran's biggest trade partner, in direct conflict with the U.S. Given Trump's low poll numbers and the potential loss of control of the House of Representatives and the Senate in November, it is unclear if any outcomes from the September meeting could improve his party's fortunes. Meanwhile, at the same event Friday, National Taiwan Universit y political science professor Chang Teng-chi remarked that China is seeking to add Chinese elements to the international system and maximize its interests without completely replacing existing institutions. The event marked the publication of the Chinese-language book, whose title translates to "An Introduction to Contemporary China's Foreign Relations." Chang and Wang served as co-editors of the book, which combines major theories with contemporary case studies and examines China's foreign policy decision-making, relations with major powers, and various international issues.