Faculty of Commerce and Accountancy Chulalongkorn University (CBS) organized a seminar on “External rebalancing in turbulent time,” currency fluctuations and global change dynamics, inviting the IMF to present research results. Pointing out the COVID-19 crisis Russo-Ukrainian War and the monetary policies of developed countries affect the Global Current Balance, which is measured by the sum of the absolute value of each country's current account balance. Continuously rising
Professor Dr. Wilert Phuriwat, Dean of the Faculty of Commerce and Accountancy Chulalongkorn University (CBS) said that by organizing an academic seminar on “External rebalancing in turbulent time”, currency fluctuations affect the dynamics of this world change. CBS invited Mr. Jiaqian Chen, Deputy Head of Research of International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Mr. Lucas Boer, IMF Economics Research Department, came to present the results of the study that the IMF has released, "External sector report : External rebalancing in turbulent time 2023".
The research results indicate that COVID-19 crisis, war situation, monetary policy of developed countries The past three years have resulted in the Global Current Balance, which is measured by the sum of the absolute values of each country's current account balances. Continuously rising by developed countries Adhere to tight monetary policy The appreciation of the US dollar has had a negative impact on economic activity. While developing countries Affected by capital movements and likely to have trade tension and trade protectionism from developed countries.
At the same time, it is recommended that developing countries Accelerate investment from the government Especially investing in solving global warming problems. Investing in the digital economy Investing to maintain the country's energy security
Presenting research results will help relevant agencies understand the context of exchange rate changes and macroeconomic changes. This will be a knowledge base that helps the government sector. and the central bank can carry out monetary policy and economic policies that are more appropriate for Thailand So that Thailand can escape from the risks that will arise from such dynamics.
Assistant Professor Dr. Rungkiat Rattanabanchuen, Secretary of the Department of Banking and Finance Faculty of Commerce and Accountancy Chulalongkorn University said Research studies on external imbalances in developed countries that have occurred in the recent past. This is important new academic knowledge that will help policy makers assess the impact of changes in the value of the US dollar and the challenging role of the US dollar in the future. This IMF study is An important base for more accurate forecasting of changes in Thailand's macroeconomic indicators.
Mr. Jiaqian Chen, Deputy Head of Research of The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Mr. Lucas Boer, IMF Economics Research Division, presented the results of a study that analyzed the development of current accounts, real exchange rates, international reserves. and the movement of capital among the world's leading countries An important result of the analysis is that Global current account balances have expanded further in the period 2020-2022 due to the war between Russia and Ukraine. Different countries' recovery after the COVID-19 outbreak and the intense interest rate hike of the United States monetary policy.
According to IMF analysis, Excess global current account balances will lead to pressure on international trade. trade barriers and an increase in exchange rate risk that affects international capital movements. The appreciation of the US dollar has had a negative impact on economic activity and imports, especially in emerging market countries. Having a flexible exchange rate policy And adopting policies that appropriately maintain expected inflation rates will help reduce these negative effects. along with recommendations for developing countries that benefit from current account surpluses Government investment should be accelerated to seize the opportunity. and develop the economy of their own country, whether it be investing to solve global warming problems Investing in the digital economy or investment to maintain the country's energy security.
Source: Thai News Agency