A global-scale climate model developed in Taiwan suggests that climate change could have a significant impact on the country without mitigating policy measures, the project leader said Wednesday.
Hsu Huang-hsiung (???), a researcher at the Research Center for Environmental Changes at Academia Sinica, said the model forecasts more extreme weather in Taiwan by the end of the century if global warming continues at its current pace.
For instance, the number of tropical storms to hit Taiwan could drop by 40 percent from around 30 per year currently, but their intensity will increase, he said at a press conference held at the Ministry of Science and Technology.
In addition, a reduction in the number of weather fronts bringing rain to Taiwan in spring could cause a substantial decline in water supply, he said.
Also, currently the average daytime high temperature recorded by weather stations in low-lying areas of Taiwan combined reaches 36 degrees Celsius or above for less than one day per year on average, but that could reach 48 days by the end of the century.
Given the possibility of these developments, Taiwan needs to be prepared to cope with a wide range of related issues from public health to energy supply, he said.
For example, dengue fever season could take place earlier each year, while state-run Taiwan Power Co. (Taipower) might need to adjust its facility maintenance schedule to meet more frequent hikes in demand during the summer, Hsu said.
Hsu's Taiwan Earth System Model (TaiESM), which he started developing in 2011 with sponsorship from the United Nation's World Climate Research Programme, can also be used to conduct long-term global climate simulations, for example, assessing the impact of climate change on the monsoon season in East Asia.
The model is the first time Taiwan has contributed a climate model adopting such environmental variables as ocean currents, vegetation, human pollution and even the activity of the sun, to the global community, Hsu said.
The TaiESM also ranked eighth best among 37 climate models submitted to the international program from around the world, based on the accuracy of the results generated for the period 1985-2014 when compared to real world developments.
"Our goal is to boost the resolution of the model from 100 kilometers to 50 kilometers so we can better predict climate patterns on a more microscopic level," he said.
Source: Focus Taiwan News Channel