Taipei: Taiwan's population is set to undergo significant demographic shifts by 2027, as government projections indicate a decline in young people and a surge in the elderly population.
According to Focus Taiwan, the National Development Council (NDC) has released data showing that the number of 18-year-olds will drop below 200,000, while those aged 85 and older will surpass 500,000 for the first time.
Taiwan's population of 18-year-olds, typically college entrants, is projected to decrease to 195,309 in the 2027 academic year, a fall from 200,406 in 2026. The NDC forecasts this number will decline further to under 150,000 by 2040. Similarly, the 15-year-old high-school-bound population is expected to decrease from 189,168 in 2026 to 122,566 by 2040, marking a 35 percent drop.
The trend continues with younger age groups experiencing more pronounced declines. The number of junior high school entrants, aged 12, is projected to fall by 57.3 percent, from 207,790 in 2026 to 88,519 by 2040. Primary school entrants, aged 6, will see a drop from 169,420 to 75,311, a decrease of 55.6 percent, according to the NDC.
These demographic changes are anticipated to lead to school closures, mergers, and class reductions, consequently impacting Taiwan's labor supply and talent development capacity. At the other end of the age spectrum, the elderly population is expected to grow significantly. The 85-and-older age group is projected to increase from 484,168 in 2026 to 503,723 in 2027, marking the first time it will surpass the half-million mark. This figure is expected to reach over 1 million by 2039.
The NDC also projects that by 2037, adults aged 65 and older will comprise 30 percent of Taiwan's population, totaling 6.52 million. This follows the nation crossing the 20 percent threshold in 2025, officially classifying Taiwan as a super-aged society. Taiwan's total population is expected to decrease from the current 23.19 million to below 20 million by 2045, with the median age rising from 46.4 to 57.2.
By 2050, seniors aged 65 and older will constitute 41 percent of the population, a historical peak. The working-age population, aged 15 to 64, is projected to fall below 10 million by 2051, making up 53.4 percent of the total population. Meanwhile, by 2065, the population aged 65 and older is expected to exceed half of the total population, reaching 50.4 percent.